Alternative for Germany, AfD, became the largest party in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern on Sunday with 38.2 percent. At the same time, the CDU suffered a historic collapse and fell out of the state parliament. AfD leader Alice Weidel describes the result as a sign that the party has replaced the CDU as Germany’s new people’s party.

Sunday’s election in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern brought another major success for Alternative für Deutschland. The party received 38.2 percent of the votes, making it the largest party in the state, ahead of the governing Social Democratic SPD, which landed at 35.5 percent. AfD more than doubled its result from 2021, when the party got 16.7 percent.

The result also means that AfD for the first time becomes the largest party group in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state parliament. The party’s local top candidate Leif-Erik Holm said on election night that AfD had therefore received a mandate to govern and that the party wants to invite the other parties to talks.

However, an AfD-led government is not imminent. SPD, The Left Party, and The Greens can together achieve a majority, while other parties have ruled out cooperating with AfD. Holm himself observed that it will be difficult to form a government but emphasized that AfD will still try.

Weidel: “We have replaced the CDU”

At the national level, AfD leader Alice Weidel used the election result to directly target Chancellor Friedrich Merz and the CDU. Weidel said the result showed that AfD had become increasingly rooted in German society.

“We have replaced the CDU as the people’s party,” said Weidel.

She simultaneously called for consequences for Merz after the CDU’s disastrous election result.

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AfD’s other federal chairman Tino Chrupalla also spoke of a clear government mandate and noted that the party had more than doubled its result in the state.

For the local AfD leadership, the election was also a confirmation of the party’s strong surge in northeastern Germany. Holm will now have 32 AfD members behind him in the new parliament, compared to 29 for the SPD. The Left Party and The Greens each get five seats.

Historic CDU Disaster

The biggest sensation, however, was not only AfD’s victory but also the CDU’s meltdown. The party received 4.9 percent and thus missed the five percent threshold.

It is the first time in the history of the Federal Republic of Germany that the CDU fails to enter a state parliament. The party has thus lost its representation in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern altogether.

CDU’s top candidate and state chairman Daniel Peters described the defeat as a catastrophe. At the same time, he thanked party members and campaign workers who continued their efforts despite deteriorating polling numbers.

At the national level, Merz called the result a disaster and said that the CDU had been caught between the SPD and AfD. He has also made it clear that he does not intend to abandon his reform agenda.

The fall is particularly remarkable since the CDU as recently as 2021 received 13.3 percent in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. In five years, the party has gone from being an established force in the state parliament to falling below the threshold.

AfD Also Largest Nationally

The election also comes as AfD has for some time been at the top of national opinion polls.

In the latest ARD-DeutschlandTrend, conducted at the end of August and early September, AfD received 27 percent compared to 21 percent for CDU/CSU. SPD stood at 13 percent and The Greens at 15 percent.

Even more recent polls point in the same direction. An INSA poll conducted September 14–18 gave AfD 29 percent while CDU/CSU got 20 percent.

A compilation of several institutes also shows that AfD in September has been around 27–30 percent while CDU/CSU has been around 20–22 percent.

The result in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern thus becomes yet another sign of the shifting balance of power between the two parties. AfD has now won two state elections in September—first in Saxony-Anhalt and then in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern—while the CDU’s historic defeat in the northeast puts additional pressure on Merz and the German government.

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