For a long time, the opposition had a clear advantage, but as the election draws nearer, the gap has shrunk — and now, according to a new poll, it is essentially a dead heat.

In the final Ipsos poll before Sunday’s election, the difference between the blocs is only 0.3 percentage points. According to these results, the Liberals also appear poised to retain their seats in parliament by a comfortable margin.

The Ipsos poll was conducted between September 7–10, with the opposition receiving 49.3 percent support, whereas the Tidö parties gather 49 percent. This would mean a 175–174 seat advantage for Magdalena Andersson — but Ipsos emphasizes that the razor-thin margin makes it virtually impossible to determine which side really has the upper hand.

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“As of now, it’s an open question whether there will be a change of government. We’re in a situation where it’s very close,” says Nicklas Källebring, opinion analyst at Ipsos, to DN.

Although the Social Democrats’ decline has stopped, the 27.4 percent they obtain in this poll would be the party’s lowest support since universal suffrage was introduced.

Meanwhile, the Sweden Democrats’ 18.8 percent would mean the party is losing ground for the first time in a parliamentary election.

Opinion Poll

V
7.6%
−1.2

S
27.4%
+0.3

MP
6.8%
-1.8

C
7.6%
−0.6

L
5.0%
+1.5

KD
6.9%
+0.6

M
18.3%
+0.9

SD
18.8%
+1.1

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